This Taiwanese attitude is just astounding:
In Taiwan the military has lost a lot of popular support over the last decade. Despite the continued threat from China, many Taiwanese have opposed efforts to upgrade military equipment and buy new weapons. Part of this is a reluctance to spend all that money, partly it’s the realization that no amount of arms buying will stop China if they are determined to take Taiwan.
A "realization?" No. A Chinese victory is not a simple fact to be realized. It is an outcome to be resisted. And what Taiwanese believe matters.
One, Finland managed to hold off the Soviet Union in 1939-1940 despite a huge imbalance in size and despite lack of a 100-mile-wide anti-tank ditch protecting Finland.
Two, Israel has managed to hold off far larger Arab armies despite lack of a 100-mile-wide anti-tank ditch protecting Israel.
So what's with the whining that they are doomed when Taiwan has a 100-mile-wide anti-tank ditch (the Taiwan Strait) to complicate China's plans?
And there is also that caveat that China can defeat Taiwan "if they are determined" to take Taiwan.
What defines "determined?" If China is reasonably sure they will pay a high price to conquer Taiwan, will China's rulers feel it is worth the cost? At some level of casualties and economic destruction and risk of war with America and Japan, China won't want to risk a war with tiny Taiwan.
It is ridiculous to argue against defense efforts on the theory that if China is determined enough that they can win. That's true of us, too, you know. If we are determined enough to defeat a foe, we can mobilize our resources and pay the price from our large economy and population. But so often, the risk of even one life stays our hand.
Cuba remains a hostile communist state just off of Florida, recall.
I'm assuming China's level of pain is higher than ours. But is it higher than what a determined Taiwanese military could inflict on invaders?
I think Taiwan can inflict enough pain on China for long enough to make the entry of America into the fight a big enough risk that China can be deterred (unless China is already in political chaos and considers the risk of losing a war a minor price to pay for stabilizing their political power).
But if Taiwan starts out believing they are doomed, I don't care how many fancy weapons Taiwan buys or develops. Taiwan will lose. And lose before we can even begin to make a decision to intervene.
Because if China believes that Taiwan's troops and people will crack as soon as a significant Chinese force makes it ashore, the price China would have to pay plummets tremendously.
And worse for Taiwan, the moment we think that Taiwan won't use weapons we sell them, we will stop selling Taiwan advanced weapons to match China out of fear that China will simply capture large amounts of advanced American weapons technology.
And we'll have to consider attacking Taiwanese ports, airfields, and army depots as Chinese troops fan out over the island to turn as much of what we provided into piles of junk rather than allow the Chinese to examine them at their leisure. Remember the British in World War II and how they viewed the Vichy French fleet.
China's best weapon against Taiwan is a Taiwanese belief that China can't lose a war with Taiwan. Sadly, we can't sell Taiwan the kind of resolve they need to survive so close to China.
UPDATE: Music to China's ears:
Last year, 24-year-old Anthony Tseng managed to get out of something that many Taiwanese men dread - a mandatory year in the military.
He went on a crash diet, eating only jelly and seaweed for dinner, and lost so much weight that he was exempt.
"I think it's a total waste of time. Even if we were to serve a year, that doesn't mean we would be ready for battle. And besides, it's unlikely Taiwan will go to war," said Mr Tseng, who after graduation got a job as an auditor instead.
Others don't even see a need for a military.
"It's useless. China doesn't need weapons to invade, they only have to use economics to defeat us," said Steven Tsao, a 21-year-old college student who will be drafted once he graduates.
I have difficulty understanding these attitudes. I enlisted when keeping the Soviets away from the Rhine River seemed doable if in doubt. And I went to basic training after I was half way through my master's degree. How can Taiwanese young people think that military service is futile or beneath them? Is freedom valued so little?
