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Friday, November 08, 2013

The Great Leap Somewhere

China is going to have to change. Do we have any idea how a continent-sized country will manage that?

Stratfor writes:

Whether [President Xi Jinping] wants it to be or not, China is at another crossroads. He has little choice but to make consequential decisions, lest he leave China scrambling from one quick fix to another at the expense of long-term opportunities. ...

Reform, with "Chinese characteristics," is not about Westernizing the Chinese model. Rather, it is about reshaping the relationship between the Party, the economy and the people in a way that will maintain the centrality of the Party. This may require improving the efficiency of the Party and governing structures, changing the organization and rules of business, and deferring to the rights and responsibilities of the citizenry. But while this will likely entail selectively scaling back the Party's power in certain areas, it does not mean the overall reduction of Party power.

Can China really come up with some type of Magna Character that unleashes productivity by granting newly rich class some rights against the Chinese Communist Party's monopoly on political power as the end of cheap factory labor inputs from the countryside wanes?

Maybe. But if the Chinese rulers fear the French path, perhaps the British path holds promise.

Yet I think it is premature to say what route China will take. After all, in a country as large as China, all paths are possible, no?

UPDATE: This is very related:

Wang [Zheng] and other supporters of disgraced senior politician Bo Xilai, who has been jailed for corruption, formed the China Zhi Xian Party - literally "the constitution is the supreme authority" party - last week. It named Bo as "chairman for life".

The Communist Party has not allowed any opposition parties to be established since it came to power following the 1949 revolution. So history suggests it will not look kindly on this new party, especially when its titular head is a former member of the Communist Party's top ranks.

But Wang, one of the party's founders, insisted in an interview that she is no anti-government revolutionary and is not challenging the Communist Party's right to govern, which she accepts is enshrined in the constitution.

Instead, the Zhi Xian Party simply wants the government to guarantee freedom of assembly and elections.

Yeah, good luck with protecting your rights and limiting the Chinese Communist Party's power. This isn't 13th century England. The Chinese Communist Party doesn't even recognize the limits that God put on their right to rule, after all.