The Taliban summer offensive this last year was supposed to be the big one that finally came to grips with Afghan forces without those pesky (and scarily effective) American troops prowling the countryside. The Taliban plan hasn't worked out:
Despite Taliban boasts that this year’s Summer Offensive would do great damage to Afghan and foreign forces, the results were quite dismal. For example last month only 12 foreign troops were killed, less than half the number killed in September 2012. For the year so far foreign troop deaths are down 58 percent compared to last year. The Taliban effort to kill foreign troops via Afghan troops or Taliban in Afghan uniforms was way down (over 70 percent) this year compared to last. Much of the decline in foreign troop casualties is due to Afghan forces taking over primary responsibility for security in most of the country this year. Last year 10-11 Afghan soldiers or police were killed each day. This year it is more like 15 a day and at least half are from landmines and roadside bombs. Taliban losses have been higher and the Taliban goal of demoralizing Afghan soldiers and police was not achieved. The Taliban hoped greater use of roadside bombs against Afghan forces would terrorize these troops into staying in their bases and leaving the Taliban and drug gangs to do as they wished. That has not happened. Afghan police and soldiers, using equipment and techniques developed by the Americans, keep contested roads open and kept after the Taliban.
We've fought in Afghanistan for twelve years now. As the expression goes, the surest way to end a war is to lose it.
A relatively small commitment going forward to support the non-Taliban Afghans can prevent the place from again being a sanctuary for al Qaeda. Don't believe those who say that Afghanistan is doomed to failure.
