Austin Bay writes about the lesson that Israelis had ingrained in them forty years ago after the October War:
The October War demonstrated to many Israelis that a decision to pre-emptively strike, deferred by even a day or two, could put Israel's existence at risk. An intelligence failure in a confrontation with a nuclear-armed Iran could be fatal. Israelis compare the shock of the October 1973 surprise attack to the American reaction to Pearl Harbor. Iran's ayatollahs should take note.
A lot of people think that Israel can't strike Iran. Only we can do the job, so it is our decision to make.
I disagree. I think Israel has far more incentive to attack Iran than we do. So even if Israel's effort has less chance of success, they'll take the shot rather than risk taking the first (nuclear) blow.
And Israel has had many years to correct whatever shortcomings they have in order to increase their odds of success. And my guess is that the Israelis will use means that we haven't considered.
So don't focus too much on the obvious method of striking Iran.
The Obama administration should take note, too. Israel won't abide by a phony peace that we negotiate with Iran over the mullahs' nuclear ambitions and risk final defeat by accepting that their enemy can strike first. Israel made that nearly fatal mistake once. They'll atone for that mistake over Iran, if they have to.
