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Monday, September 23, 2013

Well, I Certainly Hope So

Russia is leveraging a probably phony WMD disarmament deal to save Assad. Russia is upset that the West seems to be (unfairly!) trying to leverage a phony WMD disarmament deal to justify striking Assad.

Good grief, I hope this is true:

Russia accused the West on Sunday of trying to exploit a chemical weapons deal with Syria to push through a U.N. resolution threatening force against President Bashar al-Assad. ...

"They see in the U.S.-Russian deal not a chance to save the planet from significant quantities of chemical weapons in Syria, but as a chance to do what Russia and China will not allow, namely to push through a resolution involving (the threat of) force against the regime and shielding the opposition," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

Russia hopes delays mean that Assad is saved for far longer than summer 2014 when chemical weapons are supposed to be destroyed or neutralized. I say we should make sure that summer 2014 is the absolute maximum that Assad can count on for US-led air and missile strikes to be on hold.

I say strike at regime leadership target for every delay, failure to comply, or missed deadline--and I don't care if Russia or China veto a UN Security Council resolution with such provisions. Just do it. Remember, in the long run-up to the Iraq War, we used enforcement of the no-fly zones over Iraq to begin a slow air defense suppression campaign against Saddam's forces.

Of course, Putin has a backup plan to keep our planes and missiles at bay. Perhaps disappointed that the usual suspects aren't leaping to volunteer as human shields in Syria, Russia seems ready to put their own people on the line:

Russia can send its military personnel to help in the proposed operation to eliminate Syria's chemical arms, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

I will not deny that there are advantages to getting Syria to give up their chemical weapons. The 2003 campaign against Saddam and the 2011 campaign against Khadaffi were easier because our enemies didn't have chemical weapons by the time we attacked. Achieving that same condition in Syria could make up for the mess that the whole Syria Crisis of Summer 2013 degenerated into under the Obama administration.

But we should not lessen our efforts to defeat the Assad regime and should not allow the WMD deal to drag on for longer than summer 2014 and serve to protect Assad.