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Friday, September 06, 2013

Defining Being Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Concerns for Syria's Christian community have been raised. It's a valid concern. As part of the general trend of Christians being driven from the region by Moslem fanatics, this seems like an objective we should worry about.

But the Christians have backed Assad. Yes, that's bad. But they would argue they had no choice but to do what other minorities in the region have done when faced with majority Moslem violence--side with another minority to protect themselves.

The civil war is complicated enough (trying to fight Assad who is being fought by jihadis who are also our enemies) without supporting rebels to overthrow Assad and supporting Assad-supporting Christians.

But could we have a Christian Awakening in Syria against the Assad regime?

Could we convince elements of the Christian community to turn on Assad and thus allow us to arm them and support them without making it a war of us against everyone?

This could be part of an effort to support acceptable rebels--no matter how small their numbers are.

I keep reading that the jihadis are a minority of the rebels and that the jihadis have an edge in recruiting in part from their effectiveness in fighting Assad, giving them a reputation beyond their numbers.

Lately, I've been hearing that those numerical assessments are wrong and that jihadis are a larger part of the rebellion than we think.

I'm not sure what to think about that dispute. But it seems unlikely that enough jihadis entered Syria (and survive since part of their effectiveness is a willingness to die) or have been generated in Syria to represent more than a minority of rebels. I suppose it is possible that non-jihadis can be part of jihadi groups simply to join the good fighters, making the jihadi count a matter of dispute on that distinction alone.

But if we start arming, training, and assisting non-jihadi rebels, might not those groups gain some ground in the recruiting department? So that even if they are smaller than we think, they have the chance to grow and eclipse the jihadis in effectiveness and numbers?

After failing to intervene early when jihadis weren't a factor, we can't turn this around in a spasm of intervention and attention.

The war seems like it will go on, so why not start assisting acceptable elements of the rebels and help them grow in numbers? And help the Christians break free of Assad's grip by giving them the ability to defend themselves from Assad and rebels.

UPDATE: I'd like to note that the Jordanians are working to create friendly rebels. Granted, this requires time to do. If we have been sitting on our hands watching the civil war while Jordan is reacting (with our help, I'll say--good on us), that's pretty damning of our foreign policy, I'd say.