China is getting old before it gets rich:
Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade.
And if it isn't getting rich, the basis for the great peace that gets people to accept the legitimacy of Chinese Communist Party rule is destroyed.
If getting rich doesn't make party rule acceptable, will imposing Maoist discipline work?
Certainly not, the author thinks. The country could "blow up," he says, although it isn't clear what he means by that. State collapse? Party collapse? Nothing good for the party, clearly.
The same author earlier thought that China was in a pre-revolutionary state and that many Chinese rulers believed the French Revolution was dangerous example that might apply to them. I commented on it here and wondered if predicting a single future for a continent-sized country made less sense than seeing many possible futures for a China no longer producing wealth for most people and where most people reject rule of the party.
If Maosim fails, will the Chinese try old-fashioned xenophobic nationalism as the alternative to losing power? And don't tell me that it doesn't make sense for China to risk their economy by risking war.
Heck, in a situation with a faltering economy, angry and alienated population, and worried party elite, going to war might actually be the rational choice if maintaining Communist Party Control is more important than peace or economic growth.
