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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Putting the Real in Realpolitik

If we want to turn on Egypt's coup-enabled government, how much bigger will we make our fleet to make up for increased transit time if Egypt denies us the use of the Suez Canal?

Our fleet is shrinking. Alienating Egypt will make it effectively smaller:

The Heritage Foundation’s James Phillips points out that more than 2,000 U.S. military aircraft flew through Egyptian airspace over the last year, supporting missions in Afghanistan and throughout the Middle East. In addition, 35 – 45 U.S. 5th Fleet naval ships pass through the Suez Canal annually, instead of sailing in across the Pacific or around Africa.

And the airspace thing. We've pivoted away from the Persian Gulf, so what do we care, right?

I've said it before and I'll say it again: when we agreed to provide Egypt with military aid to end their state of war with Israel, Egypt was a military dictatorship. It still is. So what has changed to justify ending our aid to guarantee a little quiet in a violent and chaotic Middle East? When this government is fighting Islamist nutballs?

And the transit stuff, of course.