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Monday, July 01, 2013

The Tempest Rages Still

It was too much to hope that the Arab Spring would provide instant success in reforming corrupt autocracies. All we can hope is that it was the start of a generations-long battle that changes Arab societies to reject autocrats and Islamists in favor of rule of law and democracy. So the Egypt unrest is actually a good thing when you consider the time frame.

The promises of the ouster of Mubarak were betrayed by the election of Mursi who is only a different type of autocrat. The Egyptian people, to their credit, don't want that:

Hundreds of thousands of opponents of Egypt's Islamist president poured onto the streets in Cairo and across much of the nation Sunday, launching an all-out push to force Mohammed Morsi from office on the one-year anniversary of his inauguration. Fears of violence were high, with Morsi's Islamist supporters vowing to defend him.

Nationwide, the rallies were among the most gigantic Egypt has seen in nearly 2 ½ years of continuous upheaval, including during the square-packing, 18-day uprising that toppled autocrat Hosni Mubarak in early 2011.

I fear that the facade of democracy that allowed a tyranny of the majority to take control will taint the concept of democracy as an alternative to autocrats and Islamists. Without rule of law, voting for your ruler--while necessary--isn't enough for real democracy.

And instead of bolstering civil society to help Egyptians constrain the government within the law and making sure future elections would be free to allow discontent to be registered at the polls, we just backed Mursi (tip to Instapundit) hoping for "stability" at the expense of real democracy:

“We are very critical of the Obama administration because they have been supporting the Brotherhood like no one has ever supported them,” Shadi Al Ghazali Harb, a 24-year-old member of Egypt’s Revolutionary Youth Coalition, told the Washington Free Beacon on Friday afternoon during a telephone interview from Cairo.

The White House is “the main supporter of the Brotherhood,” he said. “If it wasn’t for the American support this president would have fallen months ago.”
The protesters are edging toward open fighting:

Protesters stormed and ransacked the Cairo headquarters of President Mohammed Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood group early Monday, in an attack that could spark more violence as demonstrators gear up for a second day of mass rallies aimed at forcing the Islamist leader from power.

What will the army do? We hope our ties to Egypt's officers will keep them a force for order. Can the army prevent a civil war? Or choose sides to enable one side to win? Or will the army break apart under the pressures on their society that provides the lower ranks of the army?

The Western left reviled George W. Bush for his freedom agenda. Now President Obama has a faux stability agenda.

Those who might have benefited from that confidence in their worthiness for freedom may yet come to call him George the Liberator. But we shouldn't abandon our ideals of freedom just because freedom isn't easy, and seek refuge in the fake stability of "friendly" autocracy that crushes hope and creates quiet--for a while.

UPDATE: And yes, I warned at the time against getting hopes up for instant democracy led by the Twittering class; and warned against an election that puts the next autorcrat into power. I wanted and still want us to teach them how to elect good men.

Don't give up trying for good things just because it is hard. I assure you, people who want bad things (or societies that breed bad things) won't tire of their fight.

UPDATE: Well, that's interesting:

Egypt's armed forces handed Islamist President Mohamed Mursi a virtual ultimatum to share power on Monday, giving feuding politicians 48 hours to compromise or have the army impose its own road map for the country.

A dramatic military statement broadcast on state television declared the nation was in danger after millions of Egyptians took to the streets on Sunday to demand that Mursi quit and the headquarters of the ruling Muslim Brotherhood were ransacked.

Once again, the military is appearing to side with the people against the autocrat. Two years ago the military just managed to get rid of one autocrat and pave the way for another autocrat.

I hear third time's the charm. We're on number two ...