Eager Lion is underway in Jordan:
The 12-day "Eager Lion" exercises have brought together 8,000 personnel from 19 mainly Arab and European countries to bolster defense capabilities in the face of a possible flare-up from neighboring Syria.
"We don't intend to attack anybody," Jordanian Maj.Gen. Awni el-Edwan told reporters, while commenting on the deployment of U.S. Patriot missiles. He said the exercises would focus on border security, irregular warfare, terrorism and counterinsurgency.
So far, all makes sense. You worry about Syria and you practice these measures.
So what's with this?
Edwan said 6 unnamed nations are also expected to engage in naval maneuvers in the kingdom's sole southern port of Aqaba, near the borders of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Jordan does not have a maritime border with Syria. It makes no sense to have naval maneuvers down there as part of Eager Lion.
Unless they have a lot to do with Eager Lion and whatever remains in Jordan after the exercises are over, including Patriot missiles to protect the possible inflow of forces for an emergency at some point in the future:
With a shield in place, the question then arises about the sword that we might deploy in this southern front. Troops can be flown in, of course. But equipment must be shipped in. Crossing Israel or Iraq is unlikely. I'd guess we would ship equipment in through Aqaba. When we invaded Iraq in 2003, I kept looking for signs we were moving in enough equipment for a heavy division to advance out of eastern Jordan. ...
But this time our main effort has to be Jordan. And this time, shipping stuff north from Aqaba would be the way to get equipment in. The equipment we could ship in most quietly would be the afloat prepositioned equipment of our Army and Marine Corps.
Are we using the cover of naval maneuvers to prepare Aqaba for our prepositioned equipment ships? Or even moving them in to unload?
UPDATE: This article noting Canadian participation says we are sending 4,500 troops to the exercise, including amphibious assault vehicles. Is a Marine Expeditionary Unit in Aqaba?
I seem to recall a recent Stratfor naval update map showing an Amphibious Ready Group in the Red Sea.
I suppose this could have nothing to do with Syria. But it seems unlikely. And even if it wasn't planned for Syria in mind it would certainly help if Syria comes up.
UPDATE: Ah yes, the Kearsarge ARG with the 26th MEU is in Jordan for the exercises.
