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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Syria is Playing With Fire

Syrian forces took a shot at Israeli forces across the hitherto quiet Golan Heights line. Israel could really hurt Assad without shooting at any Syrians at all.

Does Assad believe he has insufficient enemies?

Israel returned fire after one of its military vehicles was hit by shots from Syria, Israel's defence forces say. Media reports say no-one was hurt.

Syria says it destroyed an Israeli vehicle which it says crossed the ceasefire line into territory its forces control.

Syria and Israel have traded fire a number of times in recent weeks.

The Israeli account doesn't include destruction of their vehicle or the unlikely crossing of the ceasefire line.

But if Israel wants to take serious action against Assad, Israel could tear up Hezbollah by driving all the way to Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley.

With a good number of Hezbollah gunmen in Syria and Assad too busy to offer Hezbollah help, such an Israeli offensive would be a severe blow against Assad.

As an aside, I wonder if the Israelis have made contact with the Druze on the Syrian side of the border? The Druze might welcome help from Israel in the face of jihadi Sunnis who look at Druze as they would any other Infidel. The Druze in Israel serve in their military. So there could be avenues of contact, I assume. And that would be another Israeli card to play against Assad if losing his Lebanon rear area isn't enough of a blow.

Mind you, the Israelis have to be careful since a desperate Assad might fire off chemical-tipped missiles. They aren't nukes, but if the weather conditions are right and the warheads can deliver a sufficiently concentrated cloud of gas, Assad could kill a significant number of civilians in a particularly terrorizing manner.

On the other hand, given the legacy of gas chambers, Assad would risk a nuke in retaliation on whatever city he is sitting in.