If You Think It's Two Tents Now ...

China refuses to even admit that they have violated the border with India in the far north of India.

The Chinese penetrated deep across the line of actual control that defines the de facto border between India and China in the Ladakh mountain range:

The platoon of Chinese soldiers slipped across the boundary into India in the middle of the night, according to Indian officials. They were ferried across the bitterly cold moonscape in Chinese army vehicles, then got out to traverse a dry creek bed with a helicopter hovering overhead for protection.

They finally reached their destination and pitched a tent in the barren Depsang Valley in the Ladakh region, a symbolic claim of sovereignty deep inside Indian-held territory. So stealthy was the operation that India did not discover the incursion until a day later, Indian officials said.

China denies any incursion, but Indian officials say that for two weeks, the soldiers have refused to move back over the so-called Line of Actual Control that divides Indian-ruled territory from Chinese-run land, leaving the government on the verge of a crisis with its powerful northeastern neighbor. ...

Local army commanders from both sides have held three meetings over the crisis, according to Indian officials. India's foreign secretary called in the Chinese ambassador to register a strong protest. Yet the troops did not move, and even pitched a second tent, Indian officials said.

The Chinese won't leave and won't even admit there is a problem; while the Indians seethe at this provocation. Is China baiting India to shoot first in order to pounce on the Indian military again as they did in 1962? India still burns over that humiliation. Could China be exploiting that shame to provoke India to an armed clash before India's defense build up can redress the ground balance along their common border?

Or is this just something that the Chinese military did--perhaps locally with no real strategic objective--that the central government feels it can't disavow without provoking a nationalist backlash from the people of China?

And let's not forget that both sides have nuclear weapons.

If I was an adviser to the Indian government, I'd say reinforce at the point of contact in Ladakh in case it comes to a fight, but make sure that India didn't shoot first. China wants to play the victim, so make sure the Chinese shoot first.

Instead, I'd use this incident to test the notion that if China ever launches a quick offensive to grab chunks of Indian territory and then calls for talks while digging in to hold their gains, that the proper Indian response is to cross the long border where Chinese defenses are weak enough to enter quietly and grab some Chinese territory for use as a bargaining chip rather than forcefully eject the Chinese invasion and risk nuclear escalation as casualties mount.

If India ever wants to use this strategy in a fast-paced crisis, trying it out in this slow, small-scale crisis might be a good way to test out the theory and see if their governmental and military command structure can carry it out.