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Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Bleeding from Behind

I've mentioned that Syria bled out their infantry and that their army was becoming unbalanced with the survivors being in the supporting services. I wondered if the new militias would free up the scarce infantry or if the militias would become the new infantry. We can see what is going on in one place in the fight for Syria.

In the battle for Qusayr, the Syrian army is supporting the Hezbollah cannon fodder:

At the moment Hezbollah is heavily engaged in trying to take a border town (Qusair, 10 kilometers from the Lebanese border) from the rebels. This battle has been going on since May 18th, with the Assad forces making progress, but unable to take the entire town. The rebels are bringing up reinforcements and the battle appears likely to drag on. This is not good for the Assads, or Hezbollah. There are secular and Islamic radical rebels defending the town, and that means the Assad soldiers and their Hezbollah allies are facing some fanatic opponents. Thus the first lesson from this battle is that the Assad/Hezbollah alliance cannot blitz (hit hard, demoralize and roll over) the rebels, at least if the defenders have some of these fanatics among them. Most of those involved at the moment appear to be Hezbollah and rebel, with Syrian army infantry largely withdrawn. Syrian army artillery and air power are still present, mostly killing civilians (there are over 20,000 of them still in the town). There have been several thousand casualties so far, including fifty or so Hezbollah men.

Syria clearly can't endure too many casualties in their infantry. Hezbollah is a fresh force unscarred by casualties, and so will charge the guns more readily. We'll see if they can endure the casualties to carry on with this role long enough to take the town.

And if Qusayr is taken, we'll see if the pro-Assad forces can hold the town.

Strategypage also notes that Assad is pushing forces north to gain ground in Aleppo. Which I've long thought was a bridge too far for Assad's stretched ground forces.