North Korea Is the Boy Who Cried Wolf: There Will Be No War
North Korea is not the boy who cried wolf. North Korea is the wolf.
And while I have only a little doubt that North Korea does not intend to start a war (there are certainly no indications that Pyongyang is preparing their military to strike south), I think it is too easy to say there will be no war.
Remember, when Hitler invaded Poland, it was not his intent to start World War II. He just wanted half of Poland.
What use of force might North Korea believe is only a time-limited, scope-limited military action that nonetheless spirals into a general war around the Korean peninsula?
Yes, as the author writes, we would win that war. But no, I don't think that it is comforting that the bluster might just be part of Kim Jong Un's internal power struggle. How much death and destruction would be acceptable if the limited conflict ends with Kim Jong Un more firmly entrenched in power despite the losses his people would suffer?
Under peacetime conditions, North Korea is already darned close to bouncing-the-rubble territory. Kim might reason, "How much worse could American bombing actually make North Korea for the elites" if they survive a mere pummeling? Saddam believed much the same in 2003, after all. Do the North Koreans draw the conclusion from 2003 that taunting America is a mistake or that North Koreans are made of sterner stuff?
If war happens despite the reassurance that everyone in Pyongyang knows that North Korea would lose a war, let's gut the wolf to end that threat.
It's a dangerous forest out there.
