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Friday, March 22, 2013

Holding the Reins More Tightly

If China doesn't want war with Japan or others based on rival maritime claims, China's unification of naval agencies should be a good sign.

I've worried that multiple Chinese naval agencies could trigger a war that draws in the Chinese armed forces. The Chinese are unifying a number of those "dragons" for greater efficiency:

China is combining four of its five maritime police organizations into one new outfit; the Coast Guard Bureau.

I assume this will lessen the chance of a war being started by an aggressive agency trying to be more Chinese than a rival agency.

On the down side, it makes it easier to do what China's leaders intend. If they wish to provoke an incident or war, they'll be able to do that better:

This reorganization reflects the Chinese tactic of asserting its claims to control most of the South China Sea by avoiding the use of military vessels. Instead it sends out these “police” ships to harass and threaten foreign ships operating in what international law considers the high seas but that China considers its territorial waters. If any of these intruders call in warships, that China will defend itself by calling its own warships and aircraft.

But at least accidental wars should be a lower ranked threat after this.