A Core Interest

So far, Lebanon's involvement in the Syrian civil war has been limited to Lebanese fighting for both sides inside Syria, but refraining from widespread, all-out fighting inside Lebanon. But tensions are rising and that home restraint could end. The retreat from Damascus by the Assad government could signal that eruption into warfare.

Michael Totten writes about the friction building in northern Lebanon:

Lebanon always looks and feels like it's ready to erupt into armed conflict, but today it's more ready than usual. The Syrian civil war next door weighs heavily on this place. Sunnis and Alawites are fighting round after round with no end in sight in the city of Tripoli, and now the Northern Bekaa Valley, between Mount Lebanon and the Syrian border, is likewise gearing up to explode.

Northern Lebanon will explode when Assad finally realizes he can't hold Damascus and points south with the ground forces he can field. That's because Assad will want some strategic north-south depth by dominating if not controlling northern Lebanon; and because Assad will need a route to supply Hezbollah in order to maintain the support of Iran even in a shrunken rump Alawite-based state.

But thank goodness we didn't militarize the conflict by arming the Syrian rebels at the beginning of last year.