Strategypage writes:
The bad weather (record cold and snow), supply shortages and combat fatigue have led to many informal truces between rebels and government troops. This has been aided by the government program of arming and equipping Alawite and other pro-government minority populations. These militias have been more resolute in defending their towns and villages. The army is still suffering from desertion and poor morale, especially when troops hear that their families are now living in rebel controlled areas. This trend has encouraged the government, which is still facing gradual destruction. The government is running out of money and losing more territory every day. Rebels are still advancing around Aleppo and still holding parts of Damascus.
There is fighting in the south big enough to make the news:
Syrian rebels and Jordanian security officials say intense fighting has broken out near Syrian government installations and border posts near Jordan, leaving 17 civilians wounded.
Controlling the border is obviously important if rebels require outside support to fight. If the rebels can push the Syrian forces away from chunks of the Jordanian border, a new major front is essentially opened up. Syrian failure to isolate the rebels by controlling their borders is a major problem even before you get to fighting the war.
During the Iraq War post-major combat operations phases, I under-estimated the amount of money and arms (left over from the Saddam era) inside Iraq that allowed the insurgents and terrorists to operate with minimal outside support--thus reducing the importance of controlling the border during the main part of the fight.
But in Syria, the borders do matter a lot right now. And Syria is losing control of them.
