I only ask because China is adding Japan and South Korea to a string of hair-trigger disputes that already stretch from the Indian border to the Taiwan Strait.
South Korea is tired of taking it on the chin from North Korea when the North Koreans need some Dead South Koreans Theater for their own internal disputes:
Stung by criticism three years ago of the time it took South Korean artillery to respond to a burst of shelling from the North, Seoul's Defence Ministry has relaxed rules that required officials at its command centre to sanction a response.
"We will respond immediately to any enemy provocation," said Captain Kim Sang-min, a 29-year old company commander at the "Invincible Typhoon" unit that is stationed just 800 meters from the demarcation line that separates the two countries which remain technically at war.
The Defence Ministry in Seoul declined to specify the remit of the new orders, citing national security concerns, although Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin has urged soldiers over the past year to "punish automatically ... until the enemy surrenders".
The article says that is unlikely since we keep South Korea in check. This mistakes the difference between South Korea being unable to wage a full spectrum of war without our forces that provide capabilities that South Korea lacks on the one hand, and the ability to win a tactical encounter if the North Koreans shoot first. South Korea is fully capable of doing that.
Besides, given the deterioration of North Korea's abilities, I'm not so sure that South Korea needs all of our unique capabilities to defeat North Korea in a war if the South Koreans are willing to pay the price to do so.
And if North Korea escalates one of those tactical engagements, our military will be there to defend our ally.
China seems like they are starting to have second thoughts about their little pet psycho regime. But that is a far cry from shutting down their habit of aggressive violence.
Then there is China's ongoing effort to bully Japan in the East China Sea:
Japan may release data it says will prove a Chinese naval vessel directed its fire control radar at a Japanese destroyer near disputed islands in the East China Sea, local media reported.
Japan has said a Chinese frigate on January 30 locked its targeting radar on a Japanese destroyer - a step that usually precedes the firing of weapons - but China insists that its vessel used only ordinary surveillance radar.
The Chinese actually had the nerve to deny it and said that the underlying cause of the incident--which didn't happen, they say--is Japan's surveillance over territory that Japan administers despite Chinese claims to own them.
So we have Japan and South Korea more willing to stand up to Chinese aggression or the aggression of a Chinese client state.
To add to the mix, Japan is put a little more on edge by Russia:
Two Russian fighter jets briefly entered Japan's air space near disputed islands and the northern island of Hokkaido on Thursday, prompting Japan to scramble combat fighters and lodge a protest, Japan's Foreign Ministry said.
Russia, which is currently holding military maneuvers around the disputed Kurile islands, denied any such intrusion took place.
Yeah, just a coincidence this allegedly happened on the same day as Japan's "Northern Territories Day", which highlights Japan's claims to territory Russia holds from World War II.
This isn't an issue involving China, of course. But if Japan's military goes into a flurry of activity to counter a Russian move, will China recognize that they are not the target? Will word of this leak down to the forces involved in cat-and-mouse games in the East China Sea and prompt a ship captain to take a step that could start a fight--with a Japan already on edge over a Russian crisis?
And recall that China's command structure has day-to-day friction points with India over their land border, with Vietnam and others in the South China Sea, and with Taiwan over Taiwan's very existence as an independent state.
Oh, and China does have claims to a lot of territory that Russia owns. Just for fun, recall. I don't think China is strong enough to activate that dormant issue.
My worry is that China doesn't have the national security apparatus to manage a number of crises that crop up around them at the same time. China's military power and ability to project power away from their shores is a vastly different environment than the Chinese state is used to handling. Until very recently, China's leadership considered the defense of Chinese territory their main mission and any enemy would be attacking China. That's a lot easier to detect, sort out, and respond to. And mistakes didn't have repercussions since Chinese forces were virtually incapable of projecting power.
What happens if there is a clash between South Korean and North Korea forces while Japan's military goes on alert to monitor a Russian exercise? And then a Chinese civilian agency armed vessel collides with a Japanese coast guard vessel, and the Chinese ship sinks? Oh, the the Taiwanese carry out a long-planned reinforcement of one of their islands in the South China Sea? Just when an American carrier battle group is transiting the South China Sea on the way home from the Persian Gulf?
We complain that China doesn't have rules of the road to govern those flying elbows that take place as rival militaries encounter each other, in order to keep a minor incident from escalating to a war. I also worry that a number of unconnected bits of friction could look an awful lot like a concerted effort to pressure China to a Chinese decision-making apparatus unused to handling multiple points of crisis.
