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Sunday, February 10, 2013

As It Turns Out, It IS Rocket Science

When the Obama administration canceled the Bush plan for missile defense sites in eastern Europe that would protect Europe and America, I didn't understand why they'd do that. Simply being "not Bush" seemed petty.

And letting the Poles and Czechs know on the anniversary of the Soviet stab in the back in 1939 in the wake of the Nazi invasion of Poland was a real assault on the whole concept of "smart" diplomacy.

Further, it made no sense to me since the replacement missile--our ship-based missiles--that was to be adapted for land use not only didn't have the range to protect all of Europe from a single site could not defend the United States even if those missiles could be deployed faster.

Only much later did I find out that the Obama administration planned phased improvements of the system to eventually protect US soil. The decision still didn't make sense to me aside from domestic politics, but at least it didn't abandon our missile defenses.

So the change didn't placate Russia as the Reset-committed administration hoped.

But now those planned improvements don't look likely:

The GAO investigators said that the classified reports by the Missile Defense Agency concluded that Romania was a poor location for an interceptor to protect the U.S. It said the Polish site would work only if the U.S. developed capabilities to launch interceptors while an Iranian missile was in its short initial phase of powered flight.

But the administration is not pursuing that capability because it does not believe it is feasible, according to one senior defense official.

The military has considered deploying interceptors on ships, but the Navy has safety concerns that have not yet been resolved. The suggestion of attempting intercepts from ships on the North Sea probably would aggravate tensions with Russia. That could put it right in the path that some Russian ICBMs would use, further reinforcing Russia's belief that it, not Iran, is the target of the system.

The GAO investigators also took the administration to task for not conducting studies earlier that could have revealed the problems. Reports by the GAO and scientific bodies advising the government have raised other concerns about the missile shield, citing production glitches, cost overruns, problems with radars and sensors that cannot distinguish between warheads and other objects.

One report by the National Academy of Sciences recommended canceling the fourth phase of the system and deploying the interceptors to the East Coast.

On the bright side, the administration is so committed to gutting our defenses that we probably won't be able to afford any system whether it works, or not.