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Thursday, January 03, 2013

Saving Private Ryan

Assad is going down. Either his regime collapses or retreats to the Alawite core region in the west. If Russia truly was mostly interested in getting their citizens out of Syria ahead of the bust up, they'd have done it already through commercial means. You send in your military when you can't get your people out by other cheaper and less dramatic means. So what are the Russians really doing in the eastern Mediterranean?

The Russians are really preparing to use their rusty naval skills to save their people in Syria in the nick of time should Syria collapse? This is an interesting exercise:

Russia will hold large-scale naval drills in the Mediterranean and Black Seas in late January with the involvement of warships from the Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific Fleets, the Russian Defense Ministry’s press office reported on Wednesday. ...

The drills will be held in line with the Russian Armed Forces’ 2013 combat training plan and will aim to “practice the issues of establishing a multiservice grouping of forces (troops) outside Russia, planning its use and conducting joint actions as part of a united naval grouping based on a common plan,” the press office said.

Part of the exercise will involve loading naval infantry and paratroopers aboard amphibious ships.

Of course, paratroopers gathered to board ships could just as easily go an an air field to board planes.

It is interesting that this exercise is to test capabilities to put multi-service forces into the field.

If Assad is to survive in a post-Syria regime, he needs open Russian support to bolster the morale of his hard pressed forces if for no other reason.

Could Russia deploy naval infantry and paratroopers to Syria to support Assad as he retreats to a core Syria he can hold? How far will Putin go to maintain their position in the eastern Mediterranean?

Or are the Russians seriously willing to leave their people in Syria to the bitter end and then trust that they can use their rusty military to rescue them as the whole thing collapses?