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Friday, January 18, 2013

Into Syria

If Jordan really wants to avoid the burden of more Syrian refugees than they already host, the Jordanians must intercept the refugees before they hit Jordanian territory. Jordan will need to seal their border north of the international border to do that.

Jordan has a rough history with hosting the losers of Middle East wars and doesn't want a repeat with Syria's Sunnis:

Ensour says that rather than taking in another "surge in the number of Syrian refugees when the regime collapses," Jordan would dispatch special forces to "secure safe havens for the Syrians inside their country."

That's about right. International law requires a state to take on obligations to refugees who reach their territory. Stop them before that magic step and you have more options. That's why we have stopped Haitian refugees at sea in the past and settled them in camps in Guantanamo Bay rather than in Florida.

Although I sincerely doubt that special forces are enough. Jordan will need lots of conventional infantry to seal the border and stop refugees without gunning them down.

The Jordanians would rather not need a lot of troops for that purpose forever, of course. So they'll try to get proxies in Syria along the border to take on that job as soon as possible.