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Monday, December 24, 2012

What Are the Russians Up To?

Russia's Putin comes bearing gifts to Cyprus. Naturally, I'm suspicious.

Russia will consider bailing out Cyprus according to President Putin:

We do not see it as comfortable for ourselves to meddle in this process. But, if... agreement is reached, we do not rule out the possibility to join in with the stabilization of Cyprus' financial (position)."


Russia, which has a base--a fixer-upper, to be sure, but Russia's only overseas base nonetheless--in Syria, is stiff-arming Assad's hopes of refuge in Russia:

Putin said after Friday's meeting that Russia isn't a defender of Syrian President Bashar Assad and wants to see a democratically elected government. But he maintained his stance that peace can only be achieved through an agreement that would ensure the protection of various religious and ethnic groups in Syria.

This from the same meeting.

Just as Putin denies he is a supporter of Assad, he is looking at Cyprus?

It may be just some hedging of bets. It may be Putin's way of encouraging Assad to fight to win rather than look for the exits so Russia can retain that naval base in Syria.

It may simply reflect the idea that Russia is willing to anger the Sunni Arab world by supporting Assad as long as Assad wins, but they are hardly going to anger the Sunni world and look weak by hosting a defeated Assad who can be a magnet for Sunni Arab anger for decades to come.

But if Russia really wants a base in the Mediterranean Sea should they lose their Syria base, wouldn't Cyprus make a nice replacement? Surely that would be easier to do than flipping a financially distressed NATO country, eh?

And maybe Russia has given up on persuading the rebels in Syria to continue the lease once Assad is gone.

Or maybe the Europeans are bargaining with Russia over Syria, and Putin hopes to get European concessions over the future of Syria and is willing to put up cash for Cyprus?

Or maybe Putin is just a generous man at heart who has a soft spot for the well being of Cyprus--the Greek half, anyway.

For that matter, what are the Europeans up to?

But as I said, I'm suspicious that way.