Large, noisy demonstrations against Iraq's government flared for the third time in less than a week Wednesday in Iraq's western Anbar province, raising the prospect of a fresh bout of unrest in a onetime al-Qaida stronghold on Syria's doorstep.
The rallies find echoes in the Arab Spring. Protesters chanted "the people want the downfall of the regime," a slogan that has rippled across the region and was fulfilled in Tunisia and Egypt.
The words have less power since the Iraqi government actually was elected. So I don't expect Maliki to flee the palace. The Sunni Arabs may not like it, but until the next election, that's what you have. I feel their pain.
The Shia-dominated government should surely take into consideration Sunni anger. Winning shouldn't mean the right to do whatever you want. Elections shouldn't have those consequences.
And the Shias are already straining relations with the Kurds.
But the Sunni Arabs need to understand that they'd lose the most in a new war with the central government. The Sunni Arabs may be winning in Syria's civil war, but they are the majority there.
Democracy doesn't mean you get what you want. So demonstrations alone are fine. As long as rule of law with real checks and balances holds firms and regular elections take place, we can hope that Shias, Kurds, and Sunni Arabs all fight their battles with ballots and not bullets and car bombs.
But I wish our troops were still there to remind everyone that the limits of action have real powers of enforcement behind them. A year after we left, there's a lot of tension brewing in Iraq and little trust. How long can restraint hold?
UPDATE: Sadly, too many Sunni Arabs hope to rule Iraq again despite losing elections (and some believe they are actually the majority). While I hope the Shia majority deals carefully with the Sunni Arabs, too many terrorists are able to operate amongst the Sunni Arabs--whether from love or fear of the terrorists. The Shias can't be expected to just let the terrorists kill them from the Sunni Arab base. The Shias have the right to be angry, too. And the Sunni Arabs should have the brains to be more afraid of settling the issue with force.
UPDATE: We're getting past the peaceful protest part, after a week of loud demonstrations of anger:
Bodyguards for Iraq's deputy prime minister wounded two people when they fired warning shots at Sunni protesters who pelted his convoy with bottles and stones on Sunday, witnesses said.
The incident took place the city of Ramadi in western Anbar province, to where Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq had travelled to address people in an attempt to defuse sectarian tensions.
Al-Mutlaq is a Sunni Arab.
Attacking the convoy, even with just objects, was an implicit threat to escalate to readily available weapons.
The Sunni Arab problem with reality is well expressed:
"It's only now Mutlaq comes to attend the protest and after seven days. He came to undermine the protest," Saeed al-Lafi, a spokesman for the protesters, told Reuters.
Protesters are demanding an end to marginalization of Iraq's Sunni minority, which dominated the country until the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein.
They want Maliki to abolish anti-terrorism laws they say are used to persecute them.
Echoing slogans used in popular revolts that brought down leaders in Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and Yemen, protesters have also been calling on Maliki to step down.
"Is this the way to deal with peaceful protesters? To shoot them? This is really outrageous," said protester Ghazwan al-Fahdawi, displaying empty bullet casings from shots he said had been fired by Mutlaq's guards.
One, the spokesman acts as if the protests are the end rather than a means. The man came to talk to the protesters. Or don't the protesters want to find a solution that allows them to go home?
Two, "marginalization" means the end of privilege that they enjoyed under Saddam and previous centuries of their rule as a minority. But many don't believe that they are a minority within Iraq.
Three, cries of "persecution" would not ring so hollow if the Sunni Arab community didn't shield the al Qaeda terrorists who still kill Shias. It is true that many Sunni Arabs shield the terrorists by looking the other way out of fear, but that makes dead Shias no less real.
Four, these guys are no Arab Spring. They are protesting a lawfully elected government. In an alternate world, they'd be the ones facing an Arab Spring movement to overthrow Saddam's minority Sunni Arab government.
And five, the protesters weren't so peaceful when the deputy prime minister came to town. Yet the violence the Sunni protesters started is blamed on the deputy prime minister.
It's all blame the other side and don't take responsibility for their own actions in a blazing denial of reality.
Do you see why I wanted 25,000 American troops in Iraq to defend our gains, including three Army combat brigades? This democracy stuff needs time. Germany, Japan, and Italy needed that time after World War II. We denied that time to Iraq and they are on their own. Maybe it will work. But the odds are higher it won't without us there.
While I worry that a Sunni Arab victory in Syria could encourage Iraqi Sunni Arabs to restart a struggle for control of Iraq, that's a two-edged sword for the Sunnia. The Iraqi Shias might use that Sunni Arab victory as an excuse to expel Iraqi Sunni Arabs to Syria in an ethnic cleansing campaign. Many Iraqi Sunnis fled there during the insurgencies and terrorism campaigns while we were there. Why not send the rest to Syria if they are so unhappy in the new Iraq, the Shias may reason?
During the Iraq War, before the Awakening, I repeatedly wondered if the Sunni Arabs of Iraq were determined to seize the mantle of stupidest, most self-destructive people in the Middle East from the grasp of the Palestinians who have held the trophy for many decades, now. Why beg for expulsion when they could live in a free Iraq with American-guided rule of law?
In the nick of time, needing thr prodding of seeing how life under jihadis would be, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq switched sided in the Awakening, ending their quest for the trophy.
Will the Sunni Arabs of Iraq seek the prize once again?
