Maybe I'm just not enough of a cynic when it comes to Pakistan, but this might be promising:
Pakistan's change of heart - if sustained - could open up several new tracks in the peace process, bring about a ceasefire with the Taliban, encourage a wider regional settlement and improve Islamabad's own fraught relations with Washington. Most significantly, a ceasefire and peace talks with the Taliban could dramatically improve the chances of survival for the weak Afghan government and army once Western forces leave.
Even the Afghans seem to think Pakistan is serious.
This may be an interesting test of whether our presence allowed Pakistan to double deal and remain confident we wouldn't let the Taliban emerge victorious; or whether our forces--at some level--remain essential to keep the Taliban from emerging victorious in Afghanistan by maintaining at least minimal Pakistani cooperation.
Or perhaps our aid interruption helped Pakistan's rulers rethink their resistance to helping us.
I've long hoped that Pakistan would realize they can't make a deal with the Devil and hope not to get burned. We certainly bought time with our military campaigns and training programs. Perhaps the horse actually learned to sing.
UPDATE: Pakistan wants peace?
"There was a time when we used to think we were the masters of Afghanistan. Now we just want them to be masters of themselves so we can concentrate on our own problems," said a senior Pakistani military officer stationed in South Waziristan, part of the tribal belt that hugs the Afghan border.
"Pakistan has the power to create the environment in which a grand reconciliation in Afghanistan can take place," he said, speaking in the gritty town of Wana, about 30 km (20 miles) from Afghanistan. "We have to rise to the challenge. And we are doing it, at the highest level possible."
I fear they want to save their pet Taliban in that peace, however. Reconciliation is fine, as long as it comes after the effective surrender of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Remember, the Anbar Awakening in Iraq was effectively the surrender of the Sunni Arabs who knew they could not win and decided to switch sides to save themselves.
Are we approaching the talks with the idea that the Taliban have the understanding that to save themselves they need to reconcile with the Afghan government? Or is reconciliation just another phase of defeating the government by getting true believing Taliban into the government?
I just can't shake my worry that the Pakistanis are still trying to make a deal with the devil to save their devil--and that we're willing to pretend this is peace.
