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Friday, December 07, 2012

Status of Forces

Nearly a quarter century after Poland threw off Soviet control, American forces are finally coming to Poland. As we pivot to Asia, we have to make sure we can hold the line in our economy-of-force (and currently quiet) front. Bolstering Poland makes sense. As we pivot to Asia, it is more important to support the forces that exist in Europe to hold our gains from two world wars and a Cold War.

So far it is just small rotating units of fighters and transport aircraft, but it is a beginning:

Ever since the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's initial post-Cold War enlargement, the absence of United States military assets in Central Europe has been seen as indicative of the new NATO members' second-tier status. The perception has endured, even though the Barack Obama administration pushed through NATO contingency plans for the defence of Central Europe and the Baltics. The administration's 'reset' with Russia, the new strategic guidance of 2012, the so-called 'pivot' to Asia and American public relations missteps in Poland only deepened the sense of disconnect.

Yet, the bad karma notwithstanding, critical work was being done to tackle the core concern about the absence of US boots on the ground. In December 2010, Obama and President Bronislaw Komorowski agreed to pursue closer military-to-military cooperation between the US and Poland by creating a platform for joint work by the two air forces. Two years later, the first American Air Force detachment at the Lask Air Base, in Poland, became operational. Today, on the threshold of Obama's second term, the aviation detachment at Lask offers an opportunity to change the security narrative in Central Europe - an opportunity that should not be missed.

Yeah, I complained about the two-tier status. I credit the Obama administration for actually putting plans in place to defend the new NATO countries even if a more belligerent Russia poses no imminent threat to NATO.

And I've wanted American ground troops in Poland and central Europe now, while the threat is distant, on the theory that our presence will keep the threat distant and if the threat grows, we might not move to Poland out of fear of appearing provacative:

In addition to maintaining sufficient forces deployed in Europe able to move east to reinforce the eastern European NATO frontline states, we should establish American, British, and German equipment depots for additional heavy brigades in southern Poland. If we can fly in troops to man these forces, in a return of forces to Poland (REFORPOL) concept, we'd enhance deterrence without forward deploying powerful NATO offensive units that would scare the Russians in reality instead of their faux fear of Georgians and Latvians. Those units could swing north or south or stay put once manned and fielded.

So far, counting on a benign Russia that is a strategic partner, we've extended NATO membership east without extending NATO military strength east in any significant fashion. It is time to correct that mistake. Russia has shown they'll strike at gaps in our defenses. Fill those gaps.

I'm not getting a more robust American ground presence in Europe, since we are drawing down to two brigades there (a Stryker brigade in Germany and a parachute brigade in Italy). Could we at least get unit sets in Poland? Let's not miss this opportunity to bolster the security narrative in central Europe.