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Saturday, December 01, 2012

#Screwed

Much like it was once said of the Iran-Iraq War, one can only hope that Egypt's President Morsi and his Islamic Brotherhood lose as much as the Mubarak-era elites who oppose his attempt to grab power.

Demonstrations continue in Egypt over the form of their new government:

Tens of thousands of people waving Egyptian flags and hoisting large pictures of the president are demonstrating across Egypt Saturday in support of him and Islamic law.

The rally, organized by the Muslim Brotherhood, is seen as a test of strength for Islamists seeking to counteract large opposition protests held this past week. The Islamists argue that the liberals, who are still laboring to create a cohesive opposition nearly two years after the uprising that ousted longtime leader Hosni Mubarak, do not represent the vast majority of Egyptians.

While President Morsi of Egypt is getting a lot of bad press for his attempts to strip Mubarak-era elites of their power to block him, remember that if Morsi wasn't a threat to becoming another dictator--but an Islamist one, this time--his battle against the old guard would be seen as necessary:

In Egypt the constitutional assembly approved a new constitution, faster than expected. This speed was believed an effort to help president Morsi in a battle between supporters of the deposed dictatorship and the new government. Morsi must sign the new constitution into law before the courts (still full of Mubarak supporters) declare it illegal. All this is happening because while the protests quickly overthrew the Mubarak dictatorship in Egypt, Mubarak's many allies managed to save themselves by quickly siding with the rebellion. This means that many of the corrupt businessmen and officials that kept Mubarak in power are still operating. This resulted in a successful resistance to meaningful change. An example of this was the trial of Hosni Mubarak, who was convicted last June of failing to stop the fatal attacks on demonstrators. He (and his son) were found innocent of corruption charges and, most alarming to Egyptians; no one was found responsible for ordering police to kill over 800 demonstrators. This led to large anti-government demonstrations, which continue. As long as Mubarak's cronies are still in power, the corrupt misrule is still in play and the revolution is not over.

Don't make the mistake of assuming that since Morsi is a potential autocrat that his opponents are necessarily the good guys. I don't think any of them want regular and relatively free elections, which is necessary to allow the people to judge the performance of those who govern them in order to reward or punish at the polls.

The Twittering class on the streets may get the good press in our media, but they don't have the numbers of power to make a difference.

UPDATE: Well, yeah. This is the hard part. Unless the Egyptians are content to periodically make a new group the new ruling elite that screws them.