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Monday, November 12, 2012

Big Overture. Little Show

Russia has decided not to be a great power:

President Putin dismissed the Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff. The dismissed minister (Anatoly Serdyukov) had been brought in five years ago to reform and revitalize the armed forces. He was the first civilian to head the ministry (which had always been led by a retired general). This angered a lot of vested interests, especially in the defense industries. Most of these organizations merged or disappeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 (and an 80 percent decline in defense spending in the 1990s). The surviving defense industry managers have convinced Putin that the kind of rapid reform Serdyukov sought is not possible. That means there will be no Western quality weapons by the end of the decade. Russian troops will have to make do with less capable “Soviet” style weapons. Putin was convinced that this was not a problem because the Russian nuclear forces are still in good shape and capable of keeping invaders out.

Nuclear weapons are useful to prevent another country from destroying your nation. Nuclear weapons are useless to prevent small aggression. I'm not sure where the line between useful and useless is, but conventional forces are definitely needed below that line.

But below that line, Putin's Russia is just going to be a little Fear Demon.

Big overture. Little show.