I wondered how long France could let ECOWAS flounder ineffectively in dealing with northern Mali's jihadi problem given France's interest in leading from behind. The French want fast action, yet already recognize that with France pushing Malians and ECOWAS to the front, nothing will happen fast.
France wants fast action in Mali, knowing that if any jihadis attack French interests nearby or in France itself, President Hollande will be blamed:
Barring an emergency situation, such as the killing of one of the six French hostages, the challenges of putting together an African force make it unlikely an operation could be mounted before March at the earliest, sources say.
Merely figuring out the logistics, equipping and training a force would take many weeks, especially given the difficulty of tracking AQIM fighters.
The near-impossibility of placing soldiers in the desert during the searing summer, with seasonal sandstorms that can destroy equipment, makes the autumn a more realistic target.
The risk of an attack on France leaves Hollande facing the difficult question of whether he should try to act unilaterally, something he has ruled out for now.
"France is caught between a rock and a hard place, calling for urgent intervention but saying it must be led by Africans," the source said. "If we want to act within five months, the reality is there won't be much from the Africans so we'll have to take what we have and go. That will be a tough decision."
President Hollande wants a solution to the Mali problem. So does Mali's government and ECOWAS. But for the latter two, the fate of Hollande's political career isn't a major factor in what they do. That's the problem with allies and friends. They have their own national interests to protect and figure you will take care of your own.
Indeed, the article says America has no interest in military intervention. Which surprises me given the apparent role of Mali jihadis in attacking our Benghazi consulate last month. I assumed we'd be interested in striking jihadis in Mali even if we aren't interested in coordinating our operations with a campaign to retake the north for Mali.
Does Hollande have the luxury of thinking Mali and ECOWAS can act quickly and effectively before the jihadis in Mali can strike France or French interests?
Is it really worth keeping a French Foreign Legion regiment and supporting forces back in France when the outcome and the speed of that outcome hinge on that force being committed?
Or does France believe it can't even afford--from a military or financial reason--to send such a relatively small force into Africa at this point in time?
