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Sunday, October 14, 2012

The Security Environment Has Been Pretty Steady

Never count on the soothing words of potential enemies.

Japan's prime minister said that Japan's security environment is worsening:

"It is needless to say that the security environment surrounding Japan is getting tougher than ever," Noda told about 8,000 servicemen and women, mostly from the navy, from aboard the destroyer Kurama.

"We have a neighbor that launches missiles under the pretence of satellite launches. We have various developments concerning territory and sovereignty."

Noda, supreme commander of Japan's military known as the Self-Defence Forces (SDF), was speaking during a fleet review off Kanagawa prefecture, south of Tokyo.

Yes, North Korea is a pipsqueak yet a looming nuclear threat.

And China is loudly claiming Japanese territory (it is only a bit comforting that the Chinese are claiming lots of territory around them).

Japan, limiting their defense spending to only 1% of GDP, has reason to be worried about the tougher security environment.

But the security environment is nothing new. North Korea has been threatening Japan for over a decade. And China's growing military power has been a factor for a couple decades.

What has changed is that Japan has noticed Chinese military power in a dramatic fashion.

For a long time, China didn't bring up their claims and didn't rattle their sabre. Now China is doing both and Japan notices that they have a real problem.

But that security problem has been real even if China didn't bring it up and even if Japan didn't notice it.

Taiwan should take notice as the bask in the glow of China's charm offensive that has sought to reduce cross-strait tensions even as China's power has grown and made an invasion of Taiwan more possible (in part, by making it more possible to delay our rescue efforts).

Capabilities are the foundation of sound defense policy. Intentions can change--or just be expressed more overtly--overnight.