After long talk by opponents of using force to stop Iran from going nuclear of how unlikely it is that we can strike with sufficient power to stop Iran for long, our administration is telling us that attacking Iran is actually much easier than thought, and likely to have many benefits?
Indeed, according to a source close to the discussions, the action that participants currently see as most likely is a joint U.S.-Israeli surgical strike targeting Iranian enrichment facilities. The strike might take only "a couple of hours" in the best case and only would involve a "day or two" overall, the source said, and would be conducted by air, using primarily bombers and drone support. Advocates for this approach argue that not only is it likely to be more politically palatable in the United States but, were it to be successful -- meaning knocking out enrichment facilities, setting the Iranian nuclear program back many years, and doing so without civilian casualties -- it would have regionwide benefits. One advocate asserts it would have a "transformative outcome: saving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, reanimating the peace process, securing the Gulf, sending an unequivocal message to Russia and China, and assuring American ascendancy in the region for a decade to come."
And it will have a "transformative outcome!" What happened to rallying Iranians around the mullah regime and sparking the Moslem street to support Iran and creating a regional firestorm of war that cuts off the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz?
Now a small attack will work and have lots of benefits for decades to come? Even with Israeli participation?
And without civilian casualties!
How convenient for the Obama reelection campaign.
Going after the enrichment is easier. No doubt.
But with the rest of Iran's nuclear infrastructure untouched, Iran could simply buy enriched uranium. Maybe North Korea will sell some to Iran.
Maybe we don't know about all of Iran's enrichment facilities.
Maybe we'll have a shared incentive with Iran to say the strike worked whether we know it did or not.
Further, if all we are doing is hitting the enrichment plants and that requires American heavy bombers for the really big penetrating bombs, why involve Israel at all? What does Israel bring to the table? What happened to all the bad things that Jewish bombs were supposed to create?
Once we're involved, we don't need Israel to participate--unless the true objective is to keep American Jewish voters from straying from the Democratic party.
The idea that a narrow strike on enrichment is enough is nothing but a political ploy. All the Obama administration wants is the idea out there that Israel and America are close together and focused on a real plan to stop Iran from going nuclear. All the Obama administration wants is a transformative outcome here for the next month to assure President Obama's ascendancy in Washington, D.C. for four years to come.
This is such an obvious political move that people should be embarrassed to write about it as if it is a real foreign policy option.
UPDATE: This author finds this strike idea ridiculous.
