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Saturday, September 01, 2012

Immobile Off-Shore Platform

I've been somewhat tiresome (if I'm to be brutally honest with myself) over the years on this blog by insisting that judging China's amphibious capabilities simply by looking at their specialized amphibious lift capabilities is a mistake that lulls us into complacency. We must move around the globe and so need specialized ships and skills. But in history, we are unique in this capability and the scale that we maintain it. It is possible to invade with much less than we assume is necessary.

China has specialized lift capabilities that are good enough for about a division, if I recall correctly. For South China Sea operations, this would be enough. For an invasion of Taiwan, it would be insufficient but still useful. China could use civilian ships--whether designed for dual use or not--for an invasion across the short 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. Older warships could be used. Hovercraft could be used. Paratroopers would assist. Add it all up and you've got an invasion.

And given the short distance involved, helicopters that we would have to base on expensive amphibious warfare ships could be used in large numbers to ferry troops and equipment:

Last year China signed deals that allows it to legally manufacture the Mi-171, but it is still buying them from Russia because it takes time to set up manufacturing facilities and China needs more military transport helicopters right now. Currently China has about 300 Mi-171s, and this is becoming the standard transport helicopter for them. China may eventually have over a thousand Mi-171s. ...

The M-171 is basically an inexpensive transport helicopter. But it can easily be modified to carry weapons, or any other specialized gear. Some of the Mi-171s are even being equipped with radars and other sensors, to be used for reconnaissance and surveillance. ...

Weighing about 12 tons, and carrying a four ton load, the Mi-171 has a range of 590 kilometers at a cruising speed of 250 kilometers per hour. There is a crew of three and as many passengers as can be squeezed in (up to 40 people, but usually 20-30.)

The single model could be used in groups of transports escorted by armed versions and guided by reconnaissance models. With fewer than 300 helicopters of all types (from one source--it may be old but it is surely in the ball park), our 101st Airborne Division can land a brigade-sized force up to 180 miles behind enemy lines in one lift.

With a thousand M1-171s, and considering that Chinese units would have less equipment to move than one of ours, I'd bet China could lift an entire light infantry division in a single lift with that number of helicopters. That would add up over a week, even with losses. China itself is one giant helicopter assault platform when your target is 100 miles away, no?

If China ever invades Taiwan, I'm sure a lot of people will be shocked at how many troops China manages to throw across the strait. China might lose that battle, but they will be able to fight that battle.