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Monday, August 27, 2012

That's Our Story and We're Sticking To It

Does the rebellion in Syria--assuming it has decimated Syria's air defense network--provide Israel with another attack route into Iran (to hit targets at Natanz, Fardo, Arak, Isfahan, and Parchin)?

This is likely true, which funny enough means that Israel would be harmed by a Western no-fly zone over Syria while Iran would potentially be protected since Israel would not want to risk a fight over Syria with NATO aircraft by failing to deconflict their strike package with NATO forces.

On the other hand, if Israel only sent a handful of aircraft through Syria while the bulk used routes through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq, they could provide Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia with plausible deniability about using those routes. Israel can claim all aircraft went through Syria and who would say otherwise?

Iraq can just plead poverty of means since they don't have the equipment to defend or even monitor their air space.

Whether or not Israel needs to reconfigure their attack routes to take advantage of Syria's circumstances, Syria's difficulties provide a nice cover for Arab states that might not mind it if Israel took down the Persian bomb and are willing to provide routes and perhaps services in their countries.

I'm not sure Syria provides any tactical advantages, but it sure provides diplomatic advantages.