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Saturday, August 04, 2012

Poking a Real Bear

The Fuzzy Revolution (they come in many colors, so that convention is out) has claimed some casualties in Belorus. And now Minsk is striking back at Sweden, where subnational actors were hosted:

Sweden said Friday that Belarus had expelled its ambassador for "being too supportive of human rights." Belarus countered that it merely chose not to extend the envoy's accreditation, calling his activities destructive.

And the Swedish government has responded in kind:

Bildt said that Sweden in turn won't allow in the incoming Belarusian ambassador and that two Belarusian diplomats also have been asked to leave the Nordic country, their residency permits revoked.

Thus, a subnational pre-Westphalian (or post-Westphalian?) foreign policy has affected state-to-state relations.

It's all cute and clever when it is just stuffed bears. What would have happened between Belorus and Sweden if more direct action had been carried out by human rights activists in Sweden to further their private foreign policy of supporting dissidents in Belorus?

What happens if the Russian bear takes offense at this assault on their sphere of influence and future province of Russia?

Why yes, you can buy a compilation of posts from The Dignified Rant on this very subject.

UPDATE: Belorus remains angry over an event it insists did not happen.

The article says a thousand teddy bears were dropped from the small plane. Again, that short video I first linked to doesn't seem like it dropped anywhere near that number of bears.

It is entirely possible that the flight was a cover for Belorus dissidents to drop the vast majority of them from tall buildings or just throw them around to be found. Indeed, is it possible that the sponsors of the event really didn't risk being shot down by Belorus air defenses and just faked the video inside Sweden to provide cover for dissidents who would otherwise face arrest for the stunt?

Regardless, Belorus remains the last remnant of the Soviet Union's oppressive police state. They have no problem arresting and punishing someone for something that did not happen.

The dictatorship of Belorus is more likely to be saved by anschluss with a Russia reverting to what Belorus has remained than to gain freedom.

Unless living under tyranny truly becomes unbearable.