Assad is fighting hard for Aleppo. With reports that Assad's forces are abandoning eastern Syria and are withdrawing to Alawite areas, the issue of Russia's support for Assad's moves become important. Without Russian support, a rump Alawite state won't have the resources to survive, from what I understand.
Despite some past reports that Russia was distancing itself from Assad, so far it has just been some words. In practice, Russia is still shielding Assad, according to Sky News Arabia:
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asserted that his country rejects the imposition of any no-fly zone on Syria," the website said.
"This will be a violation of sovereignty if it included Syrian territory," it said in Arabic, quoting Lavrov.
Is Assad preparing to hold a modified Alawite homeland that extends from the Lebanon border along the coast north and then east out to a line running north from Homs to Aleppo along the main highway?
I've assumed a couple retreat options for Assad, including a Core Syria running from the Jordan and Israel border region and arcing around Lebanon to Idlib, and including Damascus but excluding Aleppo. This seemed possible months ago before Assad's security forces dwindled under the attrition of an expanding war.
Or I thought Assad might retreat to the mountains for a more pure Alawite homeland, making a rump Alawite state smaller than Lebanon. This seemed more possible with Assad's shrunken ground forces.
But maybe a rump Alawite state plus a buffer zone is an option. That would at least explain why Assad is fighting so hard for Aleppo while abandoning large chunks of territory in the east.
But Assad will need more than a Russian shield. Assad will need open and perhaps direct support just to bolster the morale of his forces as they give up most of Syria.
