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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Bring It On

If Assad can't scare the world into fearing the fragmentation of Syria, he can't win. Turkey has just told Assad that it doesn't care.

The Kurdish question is the reason for such intense attention in northeast Syria that I wondered about:

Turkey appears to be supporting the establishment of another autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria. This is adjacent to the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish zone and the Iraqi Kurds have been helping their kinsmen across the border, much to the annoyance of the Syrian and Iraqi governments. This support is paid for with Iraqi Kurdish help for Turkish efforts to shut down bases for Turkish Kurd separatists (PKK) in northern Iraq. This has caused some PKK to move to camps in Iran. This is also dangerous, but the Iranian Kurdish separatists (PJAK) have been under less pressure than their PKK brethren across the border. Moreover, Iran and Turkey are on bad terms these days and ignoring a few PKK camps will irritate the Turks greatly.

That especially explains the first puzzling report that Iraq troops were moving to the area and Iraqi Kurds blocked them.

I didn't imagine that the Turks would support Syrian Kurdish separatism. But the Turks must be serious about hurting Assad, with a side bonus of pushing Kurdish separatists into Iran who might get that front against Iran moving. Oh, and it hurts the PKK that uses northern Iraq as a base.

This is realpolitik.