American officials are divided on the meaning of the moves of the arsenal. Some fear Assad may want to use the weapons against rebels or civilians, while others said perhaps he is trying to safeguard them from his opponents, the Journal reported.
I've mentioned that Assad's forces are in a death spiral of fighting while unable to make progress against the resistance due to insufficient numbers. He has to do something different, I concluded.
Using chemical weapons on his own people is a very different thing. Is Assad desperate enough to do that? He'd have to win quickly if he chooses this path. Egypt got away with this in Yemen and Saddam got away with this in his own Kurdish regions, but today using chemical weapons would likely remove Russian and Chinese abilities to shield Assad from a Turkish-led intervention. The payback if they lose would be horrifying. Assad might still do it. But it would be highly risky.
Or it could simply be to move the chemical weapons to a more secure location.
But even moving them is risky. Why not just increase the guards where the weapons were originally placed?
But then, I'm looking for evidence that Assad might be retreating to a Core Syria. I noted that moving chemical weapons might be too tough (I just honestly didn't know) and so maybe my notion is simply rooted in maps and not the reality of the logistics of contracting your country's borders.
But Assad wouldn't need to take all the chemical weapons with him. If reports of moving chemical weapons are followed by reports of chemical weapons being destroyed to keep them from falling into the hands of the rebels, this could be a sign that the Assad regime wants to live to fight another day in a smaller Syria.
One thing that occurs to me is that Assad might think that if he leaves any chemical weapons he doesn't want in place rather than destroy them that it might keep the West busy in the abandoned parts of Syria trying to secure the chemical weapons to that jihadis don't get them. Maybe. But that might prompt a Western response as bad as one that reacts to Assad's use of chemical weapons. And we might not get them in time, which might mean jihadis opposed to Assad then use them on Assad's Core Syria. It just seems too risky.
But from Assad's point of view, I don't know what "too risky" really means, I suppose.
UPDATE: Here's the Wall Street Journal article. They mention the idea that Assad may truly want to safeguard the weapons. The article also mentions that some analysts think Assad might retreat to a coastal Alawite-dominated region. It doesn't mention linking the two ideas by wondering if Assad is moving chemical weapons within the borders of a future Core Syria. Also, I think Core Syria needs to be bigger than the coastal Alawite areas, as I've described.
UPDATE: Thanks to Stones Cry Out for the link.
