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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Wheel of Misfortune

As China's power grows, those on their border worry that increased Chinese power projection abilities will be directed at them.

India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan are the most obvious worriers.

Now Japan can worry as Chinese military capabilities allow China to contest islands in the East China Sea:

Although the sovereignty dispute between China, Japan and Taiwan over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea has always had its military component, from the 1970s onwards the three sides generally refrained from engaging in behavior that risked exacerbating tensions to the point where armed clashes could occur.

Recent developments, however, indicate that this self-restraint might be over, and that the conflict may be about to enter a new — and possibly far more perilous — phase.

Once safely distant from all but Chinese nukes, Japan now must face a Chinese navy and air force capable of reaching Japan. So Japan now worries and pivots south away from their Cold War orientation toward Russia.

Russia is growing more wary of China. And they have historic fears of being swamped in their Far East. If Russia manages to rejuvenate their conventional forces, they can act on their worries to be more forceful against China.

Shoot, the way China is going, North Korea will turn on Peking.

Spin the wheel in Peking and no matter where it points you find worried neighbors--or neighbors who should be worried.