Northern Mali is in bad shape. The Tuaregs had hoped for independence and instead got jihadis who are intolerant of pretty much anything but praying and killing Infidels. The Tuaregs chose their allies poorly.
The ECOWAS and southern Mali forces training for operations in the vast north number only 4,500. Without a regiment of French Foreign Legion to spearhead the assault, I don't think that force is capable of scattering the jihadis and their still-allied Tuareg forces.
But the Tuaregs seem to be having second thoughts about independence under the conditions they have. I've read Tuaregs may be willing to turn on the jihadis if the Tuaregs get more autonomy within Mali.
That would satisfy a lot of concerns about the status quo. No African state wants secession to set a precedent. No regional states want jihadis to set up shop and spread unrest. No Western state wants a jihadi haven. Southern Mali wants to restore the country. And northern Mali wants a better deal but doesn't want jihadis to run their lives.
Could there be a Tuareg Awakening?
About Me
- Brian J. Dunn
- I live and write in Ann Arbor, Michigan. University of Michigan AB and MA from Eastern Michigan University. One term in the Michigan Army National Guard. Former American history instructor and retired nonpartisan research analyst. I write on Blogger and Substack. Various military and private journals have published my occasional articles on military subjects. See "My Published Works" on the TDR web version or under the mobile version drop-down menu for citations and links.
