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Sunday, July 08, 2012

Speed Bumps

Syria has started "large-scale exercises" to demonstrate they can hold off a Turkish invasion:

Syria's military began large-scale exercises simulating defense against outside "aggression," the state-run news agency said Sunday — an apparent warning to other countries not to intervene in the country's crisis.

The exercise began Saturday with naval forces in a scenario where they repelled an attack from the sea, and will include air and ground forces over the next few days, SANA agency said.

Large scale? I think not.

Given that their pilots are likely under more scrutiny, that is likely to be limited. If pilots are given enough fuel to take off, circle the air field, fire a burst, and land, I'll be surprised. I suppose you could send some with enough fuel to make it to the coast for pictures without giving them the range to reach foreign soil to bail out.

As for ground forces? Loyal ground forces have more jobs than they have troops to handle. Or does Assad think it can let some of the less loyal troops off their bases if they think they are simply practicing to protect Syria? Even that seems doubtful at this stage.

Perhaps we'll see how inventive Assad's photographers can be with troops on a parade ground safely inside a base. Or file footage and imagination--if the Iranians will help with that deception.

At this point, Assad's forces will be speed bumps if the Turks want to cross the border.