First, while one Taiwanese professor believes China would like to win without war, a war will be fast-paced:
But if China did attack — it would want to gobble Taiwan quickly, says Lin. It would want to subdue Taiwan immediately. China’s seizure of Taiwan would be a fait accompli before the world could react — if the world were inclined to react.
That's long been my judgment.
Second, whether China unleashes their military or slowly intimidates Taiwan into submission, Taiwan can't keep up with China:
Lin makes the simple but important point that Taiwan can’t compete with the PRC in military force or money. So what must Taiwan rely on? “Diplomacy, art, science — wisdom.” Taiwan can’t afford to get angry. Taiwan must be cagey and patient.
There are two trends in Taiwan right now, says Lin. The first is to delay unification for as long as possible. (Lin prefers the term “integration” to “unification.”) The second is to intensify Taiwan’s role as catalyst: a catalyst for Chinese democratization.
It's hard to escape the conclusion that rising Chinese power will become strong enough to get the time they need to conquer Taiwan despite our forces' efforts to the contrary.
Not that it is unimportant to try to keep up in military terms. Taiwan needs to buy time.
But if Taiwan's defenses are giving way and their international space is in retreat, even if you can't describe their situation as excellent, they must attack with means more likely to lead to success.
Taiwan must somehow try to turn China's soft-power offensive against the Chinese Communist Party and somehow nudge China (or the Chinese people by giving them a lesson in real democracy practiced by real people) to not want to conquer Taiwan.
Sometimes the only option is to attack--no matter how bad your situation seems.
