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Friday, June 01, 2012

Getting Busy

France's new socialist president, Hollande, is pulling French troops out of Afghanistan early. Yet as a NATO member newly back in the military portion of the alliance, France might face the question of helping in Syria as frustration with working through the UN to solve the problem mounts:

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton slammed Russia Thursday, blaming "very strong opposition" from Moscow for blocking efforts to put together an international coalition to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power.

During a visit to the Danish capital of Copenhagen, Clinton warned Russian opposition is not acceptable as the situation in Syria continues to erode, with both the Syrian military and pro-government militias increasingly targeting and slaughtering innocent civilians.

Russia is taking the lead in blocking UN Security Council action that could justify force for those who insist the UN is the only body that can legitimize use of force (not that it stopped us in Kosovo or Libya--and I'll remind you that Iraq in 2003 didn't need more resolutions since the first UNSC-approved round was merely suspended in 1991), so we may yet edge into some type of direct intervention Without UN approval but through NATO so Turkey can take the lead on the ground and with a green light by the increasingly concerned Arab League which wouldn't mind helping Sunni Arabs win that fight.

I seriously doubt that France is eager to get involved in Syria except at a nominal level--or maybe in a more substantial defensive role in Lebanon to attempt to quarantine the violence from spreading too much in Lebanon.

But if France wants a good excuse for not going into Syria with their NATO allies who backed France over Libya, France will need a good excuse for why they are too busy. Afghanistan is obviously out as the reason for declining an invitation to remove Assad.

Which is another reason that France will likely go into Mali to break the back of the Islamist/Tuareg separatist state in the north. France can say they are doing their part already and just can't spare the resources for more than a nominal role in Syria.