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Friday, May 18, 2012

The Look of Surprise On Their Faces Will Be Special

Iran is on notice to seriously give ground on the negotiations that continue to drag on over their nuclear weapons ambitions. Israel is apparently on the verge of deciding whether to attack Iran to disarm their nuclear program and we have completed plans to attack Iran if the order is given:

Time for that decision is fast running out and the mood in Jerusalem is hardening. ...

Adding to the international pressure, U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro said this week American military plans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available".

If Israel is on the verge of deciding, they too must think their attack option is fully available despite the chorus of voices saying Israel can't possibly do the job. I wouldn't under-estimate the Israelis. But even if Israel does not have the capability, don't under-estimate their willingness to try even if the odds of success are low.

If you think there is a 99% chance Iran will nuke you, would you think a 25% chance of halting that capability--even for a while--is worth it? I mean what are you risking? Getting the people you think want to nuke you angry?

One problem with this long diplomatic and economic struggle with Iran and our repeated demonstration that attacking Iran is a "last resort" is that the Iranians may not believe we'll ever conclude we've exhausted all non-war means to stop them. So our threats have been dulled by being held over Iran's head for so long. Iranians can justifiably conclude that since they've gotten away with it so far, they can get away with it long enough to go nuclear.

I suspect President Obama doesn't want to be known as the Nobel Prize winner who let the mad mullahs of Iran get nuclear weapons. I mean, what's Oslo going to do if he orders an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities? Take away his peace prize given for his ambitions to stop nuclear proliferation?

And you think the anti-war community or Congress will do anything? If Bush had ordered an attack, there would be mass demonstrations and orders of impeachment would have been drawn up for the House under Speaker Pelosi. You know that is true.

The Iranians are in danger and I doubt they even realize it.