Within weeks, Mali has plunged from being a sovereign democracy to a fractured territory without a state, occupied by competing rebel groups in the north while politicians and coup leaders in the south jostle for control of the capital Bamako.
There is no sign the broken nation can be put back together soon - raising concerns among neighbors and Western powers of the emergence of a lawless "rogue state" exploited by al Qaeda and criminals.
What the heck. We didn't care enough about whether Iraq plunges from a sovereign democracy to a fractured territory without a central state to negotiate a long-term security deal. What's one more? Sure, we air dropped supplies to the government in the north before the north pushed out the northern garrisons, but we aren't going to do anything.
Mali can't defeat the secessionists:
While Mali lost control its north in a matter of days, it could be months - or even longer - before it gets it back.
Its army in tatters, authorities in Bamako have little choice but to enter into a dialogue with the rebels - a move that runs against public opinion in the south where the far-off northern rebels are viewed with frustration and often disdain.
And as I suspected, ECOWAS intervention is a joke:
With few armies in ECOWAS having had much experience of desert warfare, confidence in its ability to shake the rebels is low.
As one diplomat observed: "Anyone who thinks an ECOWAS force is a solution is kidding themselves."
Only France can do the job. We'll have to wait until after the May 6th runoff election in France before anyone in Paris will even raise the subject.
