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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Warning or Worry?

The confrontation between the Philippines and China continues:

The latest Chinese patrol vessel was dispatched after the Philippines refused to withdraw its coast guard ship from Scarborough Shoal, China's state-run Xinhua news agency said.

Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesman Raul Hernandez told a news conference in Manila that China's move was seen as an escalation of the standoff originally sparked when two Chinese maritime surveillance ships prevented a Philippine warship from arresting several Chinese fishermen. The fishermen slipped away from the shoal, angering Philippine officials.

The Philippines subsequently replaced the first-response warship with a smaller coast guard vessel that was facing off with the two Chinese ships, with each side demanding the other pull out first.

The Philippines sees China's move as escalation because the Philippines replaced their naval vessel with a coast guard vessel. China must have put a navy vessel into the mix.

China is warning us, it seems:

China's military warned the United States on Saturday that U.S.-Philippine military exercises have raised risks of armed confrontation over the disputed South China Sea in the toughest high-level warning yet after weeks of tensions.

China's official Liberation Army Daily warned that recent jostling with the Philippines over disputed seas where both countries have sent ships could boil over into outright conflict, and laid much of the blame at Washington's door.

The Chinese didn't like our joint maneuvers with the Philippines armed forces that started during the stand-off.

China watchers like to say how patient China is compared to we short-term Westerners. I have my doubts about that assessment, thinking that China fans project the quality of patience on behavior that is more akin to slowness, gridlock, or inaction.

But if it is true that the Chinese are patient, the Chinese know very well that we would hammer them in a clash right now. I'd hate to go to war over Scarborough Shoal, but China should hate it even more.

The Philippines need to be careful that they don't do anything provocative so that the guilt of escalation falls on China.