"What threatens the unity of Iraq is dictatorship and authoritarian rule," Barzani said in a 45-minute interview in his sprawling office outside of Irbil, the capital of the Kurdish region he leads in northern Iraq. "If Iraq heads toward a democratic state, then there will be no trouble. But if Iraq heads toward a dictatorial state, then we will not be able to live with dictatorship."
He called it a "very dangerous political crisis in the country" and said the impasse must be broken by September, when voters in the Kurdish region may consider a referendum for a state independent of Iraq.
Iraq might give up Kurdistan without a fight given their other problems of dealing with Iran, Sunni Arabs, and al Qaeda remnants. But I can't imagine that Iraqis will be happy about it and I don't think that the Iraqi Kurds can expect free lines of communication through Iraq to the outside world. And the Iraqis would likely fight for the border regions under dispute. The Kurds may be able to hold off the Iraqis up in the mountains, but I don't think the Kurds could hold for long the disputed border regions against a determined Iraqi assault.
The Turks, who have a major Kurdish problem, would not want to see an independent Kurdistan to their south. Turkey is unlikely to provide a route to the outside world unless the new Kurdish government completely sells out their brethren fighting in Turkey. Turkish troops could end up going deeper into Kurdistan and in larger units for longer periods.
Iran, too, has had Kurdish problems. Would Iran make nice to a new Kurdistan and risk encouraging their own Kurds to fight for autonomy or even the right to join the new Kurdistan? Open supply lines seem unlikely.
Syria won't like this development. But internal problems may limit Syrian reaction. We shall see what a secession vote triggers as far as Syrian concessions to their own Kurdish minority to keep them on the government's side. But I strongly doubt that an independent Kurdistan would even have an outlet to Syria.
And it is possible that Iraq, Turkey, and Iran would all make a common offensive to defeat the Kurds. Iran would love that since it would likely spoil our relations with Iraq for a long time, giving Iran an opening to fill the gap. China and Russia would have an opening with Iraq, too. With Assad in trouble in Syria, that might seem like a great opportunity to replace an ally.
Without Kurds as an additional counter-weight to Shia dominance, the Iraq Sunni Arabs will feel even more isolated and they might get real stupid again. The wider Sunni Arab world might halt warming relations with Iraq in a reflection of that fear. Iran would love that development.
The Kurds themselves have to consider what we could do in landlocked Kurdistan even if we wanted to fight Iraq again, go against our NATO ally Turkey, and start a conflict with Iran over the Kurds when the prospect of Iranian nukes can't seem to work us up into a fight except in the most vague terms of "last resorts." At best, the peace and prosperity they have built would be sacrificed for the right to have their own postage stamps. At worst, they'll lose the very real sovereignty that they have in their loose incorporation into Iraq. This has "disaster" written all over it.
One day, it may be possible for Iraq's Kurds to split with the rest of Iraq peacefully the way the Slovaks split from the Czechs. But that day requires a prosperous and secure Iraq that is confident enough not to take the loss as a body blow and which welcomes trade with a friendly Kurdistan.
If ever we are to see some of that "smart" diplomacy we were promised by this administration, blunting Kurdish moves to independence right now would be a good time to unleash it.
UPDATE: Well, perhaps Iraq's Kurds are willing to sell out non-Iraqi Kurds:
To make matter worse, the northern Kurds have been negotiating with Turkey, to come to an understanding of what kind of Kurdish state the Turks would tolerate in northern Iraq. It would have to be a state that would not allow Kurdish separatists from Iran, Turkey or Syria to operate freely. If the Iraqi Kurds get the backing of the Turks, the Iraqi government will not be able to prevent the Kurds from going independent.
That kind of deal would change everything. The Kurds need to think hard about giving the Turks the monopoly on access to the outside world. Some smart diplomacy would be in order to get the Iraqi central government and the Kurds to come to an agreement that keeps the Kurdish regions part of Iraq.
