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Monday, April 09, 2012

The Bones of an Anatolian Grenadier

So what could trigger Turkish overt intervention in Syria?

You'd think the Syrian army would be a bit more careful than this:

Syrian forces fired across the border Monday into a refugee camp in Turkey, wounding at least five people as a U.N.-brokered plan to end more than a year of violence this week all but collapsed, authorities said.

This isn't confirmed, the article notes, although Turkey has accused Syria of firing. But it does highlight a reason why Syria should be very careful about annoying Turkey:

Turkey's prime minister has warned of as yet unspecified "steps" if the government of neighbouring Syria fails to abide by an April 10 deadline to cease violence, local media reported on Sunday.

"We will patiently follow the process until April 10," Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying by daily Hurriyet.

But "we will implement steps" if violence does not stop after that, he added.

Turkey has had a long time to prepare their military for action since Turkey essentially issued an ultimatum to Assad to halt the violence way back in August 2011. After months of waiting for the UN Security Council to bless any action, self-interest may lead Turkey to set up a buffer zone inside Syria to keep refugees from flooding into Turkey.

So now there is a date rather than some unstated level of death that could trigger Turkish action.

Assad is in a tough position. Continued violence could trigger Turkish intervention that might drag NATO and even the Arab League in behind it. And the anti-Assad rebels have no incentive to stop fighting if that reduces the chance of foreign intervention. Even if Assad wanted to stop killing and arresting his foes, he might not be able to risk it at this point since a ceasefire would allow rebels to build up their strength and organize in enclaves around Syria.

Sometimes you never can tell what war is worth the bones of a single Anatolian grenadier.