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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Not So Bad, Really

Three months after we left Iraq, Iraqis are managing to hold together OK despite some high profile terror attacks that seemed a leading indicator of chaos:

Last month, 150 died from terror attacks, a new record low. In January 151 died. Despite all the high profile (to attract the attention of local and foreign media) terror attacks in the last few months, 2011 terrorism related deaths were down 27 percent from 2010. This was a continuation of the decline from the 2007 peak of 18,000 deaths. Last December had the lowest death toll (155) since 2003. While the Sunni Arab terror groups are being beaten, as long they can still carry out their attacks, which mainly kill civilians, the entire Sunni Arab community will keep feeling the hate.

Hey, one sign of potential success is that iCasualties doesn't even bother to track Iraqi civilian casualties any more.

Even with less support for Iraqis than I'd prefer, Iraq could turn out fine. Or at least far better than under Saddam for both Iraqis and our interests.

Don't rule out success. I certainly don't and remain hopeful that Iraqis can muddle through to a better future.