Pages

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The First Battle

China is preparing to hit us in space and in cyber-space to knock us off balance in the opening days (or weeks) of war. Do that successfully, and China has the opportunity to achieve a limited victory close to China before we can recover.

It has taken time for our government to become aware of China's threat:

Over the last decade the U.S. Department of Defense has become aware of elaborate Chinese plans to use Internet based attacks to support more conventional military operations. This awareness initially elicited incredulity, followed by fear which led to a more detailed investigation of the situation. Now there are attempts to deal with the problem.

So we need backup plans to cope with such attacks until we can adapt our networked systems to operate despite the attacks:

Having fallback plans (or "Plan B") ready beforehand is much more effective than scrambling to cope right after your Internet systems have been interrupted or corrupted. In effect, the Department of Defense is getting into wargaming possible Internet based attacks, including working out what you do if the defenses, such as they are, don't work.

And, of course, we need to figure out what we can do in cyber-war:

U.S. Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) became operational in late 2010, but it still has not established an official (approved by the government) policy stipulating how Internet based attacks can be responded to. While Cyber Command has been asking for permission to fight back, technical, legal and political problems have delayed agreement on how that can be done.

It would be nice if we could figure out ways to quickly counter-attack to disrupt the Chinese attacks before they seriously degrade our capabilities.

Interestingly enough, private contractors are a big part of our cyber-war capabilities and we will bring in civilian volunteers in war:

All those Cyber War operations are dependent on contract workers (civilians) for their top technical talent. ... Meanwhile, the Department of Defense has assembled a growing group of civilian Cyber War volunteers. Not all have security clearances, but in the event of a national Cyber War crisis, that would be less of an issue.

When you consider that China has organized civilian hackers, we could see the first war between private warfighting assets take place in cyber-space:

The U.S. has an edge in the number of potential "mercenaries" (commercial security firms, and freelance experts) it could enlist for the war effort. China openly encourages its hackers to go out and practice on foreigners, especially the Japanese (still hated for World War II era atrocities) and the United States. China is also believed to have arrangements and understandings with the gangs that specialize in Internet based crime.

Why yes, I have done something on that topic, now that you mention it.

The first battle may not involve casualties (unless some hackers have heart attacks from over-use of Red Bull), but the outcome of the battle could determine whether China achieves their objective before we can effectively fight back.