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Thursday, December 15, 2011

Pieces Falling Off

Six of 8 North Korean soldiers trying to cross the border managed to get into China:

Six armed North Korean border guards tasked with preventing defections have themselves fled across the frontier into China, sparking a security alert on the Chinese side of the border, a report said.

Daily NK, a Seoul-based online newspaper run by North Korean defectors, said in a report posted late Wednesday that the border patrol agents crossed the Yalu river marking the northwestern border around November 20.

Two were shot by other troops who spotted them going north. These are some of the most trusted troops. The Pyongyang regime understands that the allure of escaping would be very strong for most troops sent to the border. God help those border crossers if they are caught and returned to North Korea. God help their families whether they are or aren't captured.

I still am baffled that I recently read an article by some "future leader" that argued that North Korea's military is a dangerous threat. The reality is that their military is rotting away:

It was recently revealed that last month, eight North Korean soldiers fled across the China border (near the west coast). The fleeing soldiers were armed and two were killed by other soldiers during the escape across the Yalu River. The six soldiers are still being sought by Chinese police. The escaped soldiers are believed to have bribed the Chinese border guards on the other side of the river to look the other way. This is the largest escape of armed North Korea soldiers, and is but one of many reports of poor discipline and plunging morale in the North Korea security forces. From the conscripts in the infantry to the elite secret police, there is a feeling of unease, and disbelief at how the North Korea police state is falling apart. ...

In the north, there is an atmosphere of impending doom. Most North Koreans expect a collapse of their government. It’s no longer a question of if, but when.

Pieces are falling off the rotting body of the North Korean military. And defections are just the most visible sign.

I've been expecting North Korea to collapse for a long time. Although I don't know if it will be regime collapse or state collapse. I stopped trying to guess if the latest sign is the one to foretell the looming collapse. But news like this sure doesn't put off that day.

North Korea is bankrupting their country to get nukes to protect the regime from foreign invasion, counting on their security apparatus to keep their population in line. But North Korea does not have a reliable security apparatus for the internal security and doesn't have a deliverable nuclear warhead to deter foreign invasion. Would North Korea think they could somehow use their nuclear device inside North Korea to rally their people? I mean, the rulers could ship the device to some base where the troops are less than loyal and set it off, blaming America for the attack and using the deaths to clamp down on the people, whip discipline into the army, and hope for a rally-around-the-flag effect.

If a nuclear device is the only tool that they have left to stave off collapse, why would they leave it unused?