Could be.
I don't know if Kim Jong-Il could avoid collapse, let alone The Un. Shoot, Kim Il-Sung probably would have been helpless.
It all depends on what happens, obviously. If there is a complete collapse of the state like in East Germany or the Soviet Union, there would be a risk of a clash as South Korea, American, China, and Russia try to fill the vacuum is where the danger of a collapse would occur.
Much depends on whether China would accept a unified Korea under Seoul's control. I've read things going both ways, but assume they would not like that one bit. If China doesn't mind South Korea absorbing the north as long as they don't see American uniforms on the other side of the Yalu, the problem becomes a financial and social problem rather than a true crisis that could spiral into a war between China and America.
But the collapse might not be a state collapse. Remember, it could be a state collapse or it could be a regime collapse more like Romania or Poland after the Berlin Wall fell. If the Kim dynasty falls to be replaced by another faction--perhaps with ties to China and compelled to reform the economy as China has done--we'll all breathe a sigh of relief and hope that less brutal communists who at least manage not to starve their own people is good enough for government work, as the saying goes.
Or, sensing that collapse is coming, North Korea might decide to roll the dice and attempt an unlikely military victory over the absolute certainty of defeat by watching their state or regime collapse around them.
Then we'd see North Korea order their creaking military machine into action behind a barrage of chemical warheads in the hope that the South Korean army just collapses and allows the North Korean army to mostly conduct a road march through Seoul and down to Pusan.
If they fail to win, America sends 5 or 6 divisions and we and the South Koreans invade North Korea.
Or, if the North Koreans understand that they couldn't possibly win such an invasion, maybe they try a limited attack to blackmail the South Koreans into enough aid to prevent collapse. The limited attack would take the form of shelling Seoul with the promise of more intense and sustained shelling if the goodies don't flow north ASAP.
This, however, risks that the South Koreans will just march north of the DMZ to carve out a no-launch zone that pushes all North Korean artillery out of range of Seoul--but doesn't attempt to march on Pyongyang.
Whether North Korea could survive if South Korea occupies any of its territory is a big question.
Or, maybe the North Koreans use their nuclear capability. They've crushed their own economy to get them and could convince themselves that they need to use them.
I strongly doubt that North Korea has a deliverable nuclear missile warhead. But maybe they have a bomb that might be dropped from a plane. Or, if they simply have a nuclear device, maybe they put in inside a sub and surface off the west coast of South Korea and detonate it as close to shore as they can just to get a nice radiation fallout zone across Seoul. Or maybe they truck it to the DMZ just north of Seoul and do the same. Would it be close enough to do damage? Would wind patterns cooperate?
Or would we just respond with a nuke ourselves on some North Korean military target on the theory that deterrence requires responding in kind?
These are all bad things, but at least by themselves they are localized problems and don't necessarily lead to a US-China clash, which raises it to a whole new ugly level.
So in the end, the roads might all just lead back to regime or state collapse in North Korea.
If so, and if the state itself collapses, we don't want a war over that black hole of despair. It isn't worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier. But we might get the bones regardless of what we want.
So maybe we need to consider the idea of partitioning North Korea. We did it to Korea already. Why not again to make sure everyone (China, South Korea, and Russia) gets something and nobody feels that they have to go to war to keep the other side from getting all the land?
Or, North Korea could survive under the reign of The Un--for a while longer. The signs of collapse are growing and they'll come down eventually.
UPDATE: Infighting to see who will control North Korea seems to be ruled out, as Kim Jong-Un will share power:
"It's very unlikely," the source said when asked about the possibility of a military coup. "The military has pledged allegiance to Kim Jong-un."
North Korea's collective leadership will include Kim Jong-un, his uncle and the military, the source said.
If the military is supporting Kim Jong-Un, it is likely that the price is more money for the military, including their nuclear project. Which means less for everyone else. And no chance of a deal with us to end their nuclear program.
Unless this new leadership includes pro-Chinese people who plan to reform the economy to provide that money, North Korea will continue to plunge toward collapse. Perhaps at a faster rate.
Unless we rescue these new thugs with significant aid in the mistaken belief we have an opening. If there is an opening, let China pay for their pet psycho.
I'm still in favor of talking as much as the North Koreans want, as long as we let them die.
